John Anderson and the Election of 1980

For my "Presidential Electoral Politics" class, I was tasked with picking a presidential candidate from any election in the 20th Century to do an analysis on - primarily judging whether the candidates's success or failure was a function of the electoral enviornment or the campaign strategy.

Keenly interested in third party politics, I chose to look at John Anderson in 1980. Like many others, I had always assumed that his finish with 7% of the vote indicated that he never really had a shot. Not so. To the contrary, Anderson had a real opportunity to present himself as a viable alternative to President Carter, but his campaign succumbed to the idea that any vote for Anderson would be "wasted." 

It's exciting to think how a candidacy such as his could be much more viable today: no worries about ballot access (thanks to the efforts of Americans Elect), greater ability to get a message out aside from the traditional media, greater public dissatisfaction with Washington and both parties, the ability to raise money more online, the ability to more quickly build a grassroots network of support, etc. 

Paper after the jump.

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Civil Society & Democratization in Egypt

In another college course this summer, Middle Eastern History II, I had the opportunity to write a paper on any topic of interest in the time period / region we were studying. (I really love the freedom of these kind of assignments.) I chose to do some research into civil society in Egypt over the 50 years, and particuarly the role it may have played in efforts of democratization leading up to the revolution earlier this year. 

Paper after the jump. 

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Voter Dissatisfaction & Third Parties

Under what circumstances can third parties effectively compete within electoral systems that otherwise discourage them?

That's the question I posed in a comparative study I wrote for my one of my courses at Georgetown University this summer. I compared the 2000 presidential election in the United States (where the third party challenger, Ralph Nader, did poorly) to the 2010 election in the United Kingdom (where the third party challenger, Nick Clegg, performed relatively well). 

Both countries have electoral systems that discourage third party formation (see Duverger's Law). However, I theorized that the inherent disincentives for voters to support a third party may be overcome when their level of dissatisfaction with the status quo reaches a high enough level. That data I collected supported this theory. It's not a ground-breaking finding by any means, but it does have some serious implications. As I write:

"To the extent that voter dissatisfaction is a predictor of third party support, the case in the United Kingdom suggests what may lie ahead for the United States. Since 2000, public opinion in the United States has trended toward where public opinion in United Kingdom was in 2010. The number of Americans who believe the United States is on the right track decreased by 25 points from 2000 to 26% in 2011. 

 In the same period of time, the number of Americans who are satisfied with the United States system of government and how well it is working decreased by 26 points to 42%. Unemployment in the United States rose to over 9%. In the 2012 presidential election, voter dissatisfaction with government and the direction of the country may create a vacuum in which a third party candidate emerges. Voters’ fears of wasting their votes or spoiling the election by voting for a third party candidate may be overcome by a greater desire for an alternative to the two major parties."

Full text after the jump.

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30 Under 30 Civic Leaders

Many thanks to Spalshlife for recently naming me to its "30 under 30 civic leaders" list. I'm in good company with many great colleagues who I have been lucky to get to know since coming to DC a few years ago. You can read the list here. 

Splashlife is a realtively new organization. Their mission is to "connect every one of the 75 million members of our generation with one another, and with the tools and resources we need to realize our best and biggest dreams."

The survey they had us fill out was rather lengthy, and heavily edited down (which makes sense). But I've posted my compelte answers after the jump, as I some considerable time thinking about it!

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Pam for Pike

Over the past few weeks, I spent some time back home in Pike County, PA as I transition from "the real world" back to college life again. The timing aligned with primary election season, so I found myself engulfed in local politics and essentially managing a county commissioner's race.

It seems odd that as much as I am involved in politics, I have not worked for a candidate before. I guess that's because I have never had the opportunity to work for someone I really believed in. In this case, I did – her name is Pam Lutfy. I got to know Pam during her time on the local school board. She's thoughtful, intelligent, a good listener, and a consensus-builder. Most of all, she does what she feels is the right thing to do. I'm hard pressed to think of another public official I can describe in the same way. 

She decided to toss her hat into the Republican primary against two other candidates – an incumbent, and the handpicked replacement of the other outgoing Republican commissioner. That act in itself took courage. Competitive elections are rare because the party establishment usually chooses its candidates and that's the end. Indeed, a handful of other Republicans who wanted to run dropped out once the outgoing commissioner's replacement was picked.

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